A newly discovered asteroid, 2024 YR4, has captured global attention with a 2% chance of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032. While that probability may seem low, astronomers are taking no chances. With advanced tracking systems and the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) set to monitor its path, scientists are racing against time to determine if this space rock poses a real threat.
How Big Is Asteroid 2024 YR4?
2024 YR4 is estimated to be between 131 to 295 feet (40 to 90 meters) wide—about the size of a large building. While this is far smaller than the asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs, its potential impact could still be devastating.
To put things in perspective:
- In 1908, a 98-foot asteroid exploded over Tunguska, Siberia, leveling 2,150 square kilometers of forest.
- In 2013, a 66-foot meteor over Chelyabinsk, Russia, released energy 30 times stronger than the Hiroshima atomic bomb, damaging 7,000 buildings and injuring over 1,000 people.
If 2024 YR4 turns out to be at the larger end of its estimate, its impact could flatten entire cities or trigger tsunamis if it lands in an ocean.
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How Scientists Are Tracking the Asteroid
NASA’s ATLAS telescope in Chile first detected 2024 YR4 on December 27, 2024. Since then, astronomers worldwide—including teams in Hawaii, Chile, and New Mexico—have been tracking its movement.
The challenge? The asteroid is already 30 million miles (48 million km) away from Earth and moving farther every day. Scientists have only until April 2025 to gather crucial data before it disappears from view until 2028.
James Webb Space Telescope to the Rescue
To get the most accurate measurements, NASA plans to use the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) in March 2025. Unlike Earth-based telescopes that rely on reflected sunlight, JWST can detect the asteroid’s heat, providing precise details on its size and trajectory.
A second observation mission is scheduled for May 2025. If scientists cannot rule out an impact before 2024 YR4 fades from view, it will remain on NASA’s risk list until 2028.
What Would Happen If 2024 YR4 Hits Earth?
Scientists estimate that if 2024 YR4 collides with Earth at its current speed of 38,028 mph (17 km/s), the results could be catastrophic.
Blast Zone: An impact could cause destruction up to 31 miles (50 km) from the crash site.
Tsunamis: If it lands in the ocean, it could trigger massive waves and coastal devastation.
Fireball Explosion: Similar to Chelyabinsk, the asteroid could explode in the atmosphere, creating a shockwave capable of shattering windows and collapsing structures.
Should We Be Worried?
Experts say there’s a 98% chance the asteroid will miss Earth. However, history has shown that new data can change predictions. More than 3,000 new near-Earth objects (NEOs) are discovered each year, and many asteroids remain undetected due to their dark surfaces and small size.
NASA, the European Space Agency (ESA), and other global space agencies are monitoring 2024 YR4 closely. While tiny asteroids burn up in Earth’s atmosphere, larger ones pose a serious risk if undetected.
Final Thoughts
While the chances of 2024 YR4 hitting Earth are currently low, scientists are not taking any risks. With advanced space monitoring systems and NASA’s upcoming JWST observations, we will soon have a clearer picture of this asteroid’s fate.
For now, astronomers will keep watching the skies—because when it comes to planetary defense, preparation is everything.
